Premier League Draw Betting Strategy
We’ve prepared 2 tips for you that are absolutely worth considering. These are aspects that are often overlooked in a Premier League draw betting strategy.
The tips, which we will discuss in detail shortly, are:
- Keep the numbers clearly in mind.
- Know what is required for long-term profit.
Tip 1: Keep the numbers clearly in mind
Speaking of numbers: You should always keep them in mind. What often puts us off betting on a draw at non GamStop sportsbooks for UK players is the relatively low probability of it occurring. At the beginning, we already explained that approximately 25% of all Premier League matches end in a draw. That equates to 2.25 matches per matchday. However, if we extrapolate that to the entire season, that results in 76.5 matches per season ending in a draw. 76.5 out of 306. That already sounds much more likely and more playable, doesn’t it?
Tip 2: Know what is required for long-term profit at non GamStop bookmakers
Especially when you keep in mind what’s necessary to achieve long-term profits with a draw betting strategy. Sports betting is always designed for sustainability. No one has clairvoyant abilities, even if we’ve all had the right instinct for relatively unlikely, if not absurd, situations that ultimately turned out to be true.
The great art of sports betting lies in understanding that not every ticket can win. Consequently, it’s simply a matter of earning enough profit from the winning tickets to cover all losses. Experienced players who play more than 20 tickets per month can easily earn 15 to 20 units in profit, even if only every second ticket wins. Of course, it’s also fundamentally important that you always calculate the optimal bet size and practice good money management.
But back to what’s required to win with the draw betting strategy at non GamStop bookmakers. For example BetMac Casino, quick and secure BetMac Casino login. We already told you this at the beginning. Because you always at least triple your winnings with a draw bet, which in the Premier League, with extremely rare exceptions, is always available at odds of 3.10 or higher, it’s enough at the end of the month if you win just one out of three draw bets. Then, even with some non GamStop bookmakers, you’ll see a small profit below your winnings. A profit that’s even greater if you win not just 33% of all draw bets on average, but perhaps 35%, 40%, or even 50%. And to achieve this, you should also know when draw bets are particularly profitable in the Premier League, which we’d like to show you at the end.
Two situations that are predestined for draw bets on the Premier League
Let’s say FC Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, or a team fighting for a Champions League spot is playing at home against a heavy underdog. Would that be a situation where a bet on a draw could pay off one out of three times? Absolutely not. While you might occasionally encounter a positive expected value at significantly higher odds (a favorite at home against an underdog would likely boost the bet on a draw to at least 4.00, sometimes even significantly higher), this is certainly not a situation predestined for a bet on a draw.
So instead, look for the following two scenarios:
- (1) An underdog plays at home against the favorite
- (2) Two teams on equal terms with strong defensive values clash
An underdog plays at home against the favorite at non GamStop bookmakers
Hardly any situation is more conducive to a draw betting strategy than this: the supposed underdog in a match plays at home in front of their own fans against the heavy favorite. Did you know that a Premier League team is already considered strong away from home if it wins just seven of its 17 away matches in the entire season? While that may sound devastatingly low, a club that actually manages to achieve these seven away wins should earn a place in the top three Premier League teams in the away standings.
In fact, it’s still the case that the home team wins in about 50% of all games. The home advantage, which in earlier times was associated with long journeys and the lack of, or still in its infancy, professionalization in football, still exists today. And this despite all teams doing everything they can to compensate for it. For example, by having all Premier League teams stay together in hotels before their own home games, simulating a situation the players would also face away from home, where no professional team in the world travels to the matchday itself.
And yet, there’s something that always gives home teams an extra boost. The fans? The classic division of roles, where the home team has to be attacking and the away team defensive? It’s hard to say. The fact is that a favored away team can still live very well with a draw, which is why the average of 2.25 draws per Premier League matchday is primarily found in matches where the visitors were the favorites.
Now, you shouldn’t necessarily pick a match where the unfortunate bottom-placed team hosts the current league leader. However, if the home team is an underdog, a draw becomes much more likely.
Two teams on equal terms with strong defensive values clash non GamStop bookmakers
In matches between equal teams, mutual neutralization and a final point split are, of course, somewhat inevitable, although the level of play here is crucial. When two teams have strong offenses and rather shaky defenses, it will ultimately come down to nuances. For example, who enters the game in better form on the day. Who might make the first individual mistake.
However, if the two opponents on equal terms have strong defensive stats and are generally more defensively minded, a Premier League draw betting strategy can be applied here as well at non GamStop bookmakers. If, in this scenario, the favorite role is slightly shifted toward the away team, at least in the bookmakers’ odds, there’s a strong indication that you will ultimately win with your draw bet in at least one out of three cases. And, as we’ve shown, that’s perfectly sufficient for a long-term profit at the end of the month.
Conclusion
In today’s sports betting guide, we’ve taken an in-depth look at the unpopular Tip X from the classic 3-way system – the draw bet. We’ve not only shown you why draw bets are extremely unpopular, but also offered several explanations for this fact. We’ve also provided you with a number of tips on how to successfully bet on draws, and at the end, we’ve revealed the two starting positions in the Premier League where a draw betting strategy can reliably lead to sustainable profits.
Of course, don’t forget that tips and the resulting strategy always need to be analyzed individually. For example, if the underdog hasn’t scored in a home game against the favorite for some time, or if a previously strong defense is without its defensive leader due to a fifth yellow card, there are other factors at play that could ultimately thwart the tip. So always keep an eye out for aspects that could potentially make your otherwise well-thought-out tip less certain.
